1.casino World Cup Probability Challenge

No Betting. No Gambling. Predict Like a Pro 

Current Game: World Cup Probability Challenge 

Today's Matches 

Leaderboard

The leaderboard ranks players based on forecast accuracy. Higher Hit Score is better. Lower Brier Score and Log Loss are better.

3. How to Play

Predict the World Cup with probabilities — not bets.

1.casino World Cup Probability Challenge is a non-gambling forecasting game. You do not bet money. You do not buy chips. You do not place wagers. You simply submit your probability forecast before kickoff and see how accurate your prediction was after the match ends.

Step 1 — Choose a Match

Select one upcoming World Cup match from the match list.

Example:

Mexico vs South Korea
Canada vs Qatar
United States vs Australia
Brazil vs Haiti

Each match has three possible outcomes:

Team A wins
Draw
Team B wins

Step 2 — Submit Three Probabilities

Instead of guessing only one winner, you submit a probability distribution.

Example:

Mexico win: 55%
Draw: 25%
South Korea win: 20%

The three numbers must add up to 100%.

Step 3 — Choose a MEST Forecast Label

Choose the main reason behind your forecast:

M-heavy — Team strength, squad quality, star players
E-heavy — Fitness, injury, fatigue, energy level
S-heavy — Tactics, formation, space control
T-heavy — Timing, momentum, match rhythm

Step 4 — Add a Short Reason

Write one or two sentences explaining your forecast.

Example:

Mexico has home-region advantage and stronger attacking structure, but South Korea has high transition speed and late-game pressure ability.

Step 5 — Get Scored After the Match

After the match result is official, your forecast will be scored.

If Mexico wins and you gave Mexico a 55% chance, your simple Hit Score is 55 points.

Professional scores such as Brier Score and Log Loss may also be used to rank prediction quality.

Important Rule

One valid forecast per email per match. If you submit more than once before the closing time, your latest valid submission may be used for scoring.

No betting. No deposits. No withdrawals. No casino games. Forecasting only.

4. Today’s Matches

Choose a match and submit your forecast before the closing time.

Forecasts close before kickoff. Late submissions may be marked invalid and excluded from scoring.

Please check the Match ID carefully before submitting your forecast.

Suggested Match Table Columns:

Match ID
Group
Team A
Team B
Kickoff Time
Forecast Close Time
Status
Official Result

Example:

WC001 — Mexico vs South Korea
WC002 — Canada vs Qatar
WC003 — United States vs Australia
WC004 — Brazil vs Haiti

Status Definitions:

Open — Forecasts are currently accepted.
Closed — Forecast submissions are closed.
Completed — The match result has been entered and scores are being calculated.
Scored — The match has been scored and included in the leaderboard.

Truth Source:

Official match results will be based on public official match sources, such as FIFA official match results or other clearly identified public result sources.

5. Submit Forecast

Submit Your World Cup Probability Forecast

No account is required for the first version of this game.

Please provide:

Email Address
Display Name / Team Name
Match ID
Match Name
Team A Win Probability %
Draw Probability %
Team B Win Probability %
MEST Forecast Label
Short Reasoning
No-Gambling Agreement

Your email is used only to identify submissions and prevent duplicate entries. Your email will not be displayed on the public leaderboard.

Probability Rule

Your three probabilities must add up to 100%.

Example:

Team A win: 50%
Draw: 30%
Team B win: 20%

Total: 100%

If your probabilities do not add up to 100%, your forecast may be marked invalid.

No-Gambling Agreement

By submitting a forecast, you confirm:

I understand that 1.casino is a non-gambling probability forecasting game. No betting, no deposits, no withdrawals, no casino games, no sportsbook services, and no real-money gambling are involved.

6. Leaderboard

Forecasting Skill Leaderboard

The leaderboard ranks players based on the quality of their forecasts.

Public leaderboard fields may include:

Rank
Display Name
Number of Forecasts
Average Hit Score
Average Brier Score
Average Log Loss
Best MEST Label
Last Updated

Emails will not be publicly displayed.

Simple Score: Hit Score

The simple score is easy to understand:

If the actual result happens, you earn the probability points you assigned to that result.

Example:

You predicted:

Mexico win: 55%
Draw: 25%
South Korea win: 20%

If Mexico wins, your Hit Score is 55 points.

Professional Scores

Brier Score measures how close your full probability distribution was to the actual result. Lower is better.

Log Loss rewards accurate confidence and strongly penalizes overconfident wrong predictions. Lower is better.

Ranking Principle

A good forecast is not the loudest prediction.
A good forecast is a well-calibrated probability.

The goal is to beat random guessing, beat the crowd, and eventually challenge AI forecast models.

7. MEST Forecast Labels

Forecast structure matters.

1.casino is not only a prediction game. It is a structural forecasting lab.

Every forecast can include a MEST label to explain the main structure behind the prediction.

M-heavy — Strength Structure

Choose M-heavy when your forecast is mainly based on:

Team strength
Squad quality
Star players
Depth of bench
Historical performance
Overall football power

Example:

I choose M-heavy because Team A has stronger players, better squad depth, and more international experience.

E-heavy — Energy Structure

Choose E-heavy when your forecast is mainly based on:

Fitness
Injuries
Fatigue
Travel load
Rest days
Weather and energy consumption
Late-game physical decline

Example:

I choose E-heavy because Team B played recently and may suffer from fatigue in the second half.

S-heavy — Space Structure

Choose S-heavy when your forecast is mainly based on:

Tactics
Formation
Pressing structure
Defensive shape
Space control
Counterattack lanes
Midfield control

Example:

I choose S-heavy because Team A controls midfield space better and can limit Team B’s transition attacks.

T-heavy — Time Structure

Choose T-heavy when your forecast is mainly based on:

Momentum
Match rhythm
Early goal probability
Late-game pressure
Game-state changes
Coaching adjustments
Time-sensitive turning points

Example:

I choose T-heavy because this match may change sharply after the first goal, and late substitutions could decide the result.

Why MEST Matters

Traditional prediction games only ask: Who will win?

1.casino asks a deeper question:

Why do you think this probability is reasonable?

By collecting MEST labels, we can study which type of forecast structure performs better across different teams, groups, and tournament stages.

8. Future Games / Coming Soon

1.casino is starting with the World Cup — but it is built for more.

The World Cup Probability Challenge is the first public game on 1.casino. Future games may include other sports, public events, AI forecasting contests, platform growth predictions, and decision-intelligence challenges.

Coming Soon

AI vs Human Forecasting Challenge
Can human forecasters beat AI models?

Crowd Forecast Index
Compare your forecast with the average forecast of all players.

Friends Group Leaderboards
Create a group code and compete with friends, family, or a community.

NBA Probability Challenge
Predict basketball match outcomes with probabilities.

Soccer Club Challenge
Forecast league matches, cup matches, and tournament outcomes.

YouTube Growth Prediction Game
Predict whether a channel will reach a subscriber or view milestone before a deadline.

Public Events Forecasting
Forecast measurable public events using transparent probability rules.

Stock Market Direction Research Game
A non-advisory research game for forecasting market direction probabilities. No investment advice.

MEST Forecast Lab
Study whether M-heavy, E-heavy, S-heavy, or T-heavy forecasts perform better across different event types.

Long-Term Vision

1.casino aims to become a non-gambling probability game platform where players, researchers, AI systems, and communities compete on forecasting accuracy.

No betting.
No deposits.
No withdrawals.
No casino games.
Only probability, reasoning, scoring, and learning.